Abstract
摘要研究目的. 旨在探索中国高科技产业产能过剩的形成机制，构建其理论解释框架，并为该问题的治理提供理论依据与实践方向。
理论框架. 构建了基于“制造-市场”二分元视角的“政策-文化-市场—行为主体”（PCM-A）理论框架。
研究方法. 采用解释性序列混合方法设计：通过问卷调查进行定量探索，识别关键变量与结构路径；通过深度访谈进行质性构建，揭示行为背后的动机与逻辑；最后通过定量结论、定性结论和行业数据的三角验证，确保结论的稳健性，并构建理论框架。
研究发现. 第一，产能过剩遵循“双重传导机制”：一是“政策—文化—行为”的内卷路径驱动非合作策略，二是“市场—行为—创新”的扭曲路径加剧产能过剩。第二，“内卷文化”是导致企业陷入“囚徒困境”的关键变量。第三，行业“结构性过剩”的根源在于“治理不可能三角”所揭示的深层政治经济学悖论。
理论价值与实践启示. 理论上，本研究提出了一个超越传统经济范式的系统解释框架，实现了宏观制度、中观文化与微观行为的有机整合。实践上，治理的根本出路在于通过“规则重构”，系统性重塑PCM环境，引导行为主体策略转向，促使行业回归健康生态。
Abstract
Research object. This study aims to explore the formation mechanism of overcapacity in China's high-tech industries, construct a theoretical explanatory framework, and provide a theoretical basis and practical direction for addressing this issue.
Theoretical framework. A "Policy-Culture-Market-Agent" (PCM-A) theoretical framework is proposed based on the "Manufacturing-Market" dichotomous meta-perspective.
Research methods. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was adopted: quantitative exploration was conducted through questionnaire surveys to identify key variables and structural paths; qualitative insights were obtained through in-depth interviews to reveal the motivations and logic behind corporate behaviors; finally, triangulation of quantitative findings, qualitative results, and industry data was performed to ensure the robustness of conclusions and construct the theoretical framework.
Findings. First, overcapacity follows a "dual transmission mechanism": an involution path of "Policy → Culture → Behavior" driving non-cooperative strategies, and a distortion path of "Market → Behavior → Innovation" exacerbating overcapacity. Second, "involution culture" is identified as a key variable leading firms into a "prisoner's dilemma". Third, the industry's "structural overcapacity" is rooted in the deep-seated political economy paradox revealed by the "Impossible Trinity of Governance".
Theoretical Value and Practical Implications. Theoretically, this study proposes a systematic explanatory framework that transcends traditional economic paradigms, achieving an organic integration of macro-level institutions, meso-level culture, and micro-level behaviors. Practically, the fundamental solution lies in "institutional restructuring" to systematically reshape the P-C-M environment, guide strategic shifts among agents, and steer the industry back toward a healthy ecosystem.