Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of this study is to identify trends and events that are likely to occur between now and the year 2005 that will have an effect on what children will learn (the content of curriculum) and how technology will be used to help children learn (the delivery of instruction) among elementary students ages five to eleven in American public schools. Methodology. A Delphi study was conducted with a panel of twenty experts; five Futurists, Authors, Educational Planners, and Policy Analysts. One hundred percent of the experts responded in each of the three rounds. Data were collected using fax and e-mail technology. The Kruskal-Wallis and Mann Whitney tests were used to analyze the data. Findings The experts' consensus of trends or events most likely to influence the content of curriculum include: access to information, concern for environment problems, increased violence and concern for personal safety, necessity to teach social goals, development of cross-cultural and global studies, emergence of new technological capabilities, increased global interdependence, development of higher-order thinking processes, and emphasis on cooperation and respect as ethnic and cultural diversity increases. The trends or events most likely to influence the technological delivery of instruction include: computers in classrooms for information acquisition and delivery, disparity in wealth among schools and students, technology that allows teachers to design multimedia lessons and individualize instruction, schools linked together through audio/video communication, a national information infrastructure, and miniaturization of technologies. Conclusions. Political, economic, and social/demographic trends along with the rapid development of technology will have a strong impact on the elementary schools in the U.S., and influence both the content of the curriculum and the delivery of instruction. Technology will continue to offer unlimited opportunities for new types of instructional delivery, but disparity in wealth will effect the access of elementary students to these benefits. Recommendations for Action. The content of the curriculum will need to be integrated and expanded to reflect the changing techno-informational society. A technological infrastructure will need to be developed to close the "technological gap" between affluent and less affluent schools.