Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of this study was to identify trends or events that are likely to occur between 2004 and 2010 that will influence the future of California charter schools and determine the probability and the potential impact of these trends and events. Further, it was the purpose of this study to identify the trends and events providing the greatest promise/benefit and greatest challenge/problem and given the experts' analysis of the trends and events determine the implications for charter schools and traditional public schools. Methodology. This descriptive study utilized the Delphi Method with a panel of fifteen experts including authors/theorists, educational planners, policy analysts, and futurists. Six research questions were addressed in four rounds. All experts responded in the first three rounds and 87 percent responded to round four. Data were primarily collected using e-mail, which began October 13, 2003 and concluded February 9, 2004. The data collected for this study was from both written responses from open-ended questions and numerical rating. Findings. Due to ties in the rankings, numerous trends and events were identified that will influence the future of California charter schools. Trends or events were identified that would most likely to occur, provide the heaviest impact, the greatest promise/benefits and the greatest challenges/problems. Experts identified the implications to charter schools and traditional public schools which included: political implications, implications to the charter school fundamentals-accountability, autonomy and innovation, economics implications, leadership implications, and the implications for the future of charter schools. Conclusions. Analysis of the data resulted in several conclusions. (1) California Charter schools will continue to be challenged by politically oriented groups and unions that demand to impose limitations on charter schools: and yet, there is a strong perception that a newly formed charter school advocacy organization will tackle these political issues. (2) The current budget crisis in California will continue and create competition for limited financial resources including the need for charter school facilities. (3) People with the right leadership skills, the willingness to operate outside of the box to push beyond the edges of traditional educational paradigms, and training and support for these innovative leaders and teachers is required to build capacity in the charter school movement. (4) The California charter school movement needs to hold on to its dreams and persevere. (5) The cooperation and sharing between charter schools and traditional public schools is crucial in order for all educational systems to benefit from the lessons learned from charter schools as educational laboratories. Implications and recommendations for action. Charter schools will remain a strong educational reform if they can be freed and released from political pressures and union control, given proper funding, develop quality and innovative leadership, continue to hold on to the vision and intention of charter school legislation and provide lessons to all educational systems.