Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of this study was to predict, using a Delphi study technique, what changes in drug-testing policy are likely to take place in California public high schools over the next five years in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Board of Education of Independent School District No. 92 of Pottawatomie County v. Earls (2002), which held that random suspicionless drug testing of secondary public school students as a condition to participation in any extracurricular activity was constitutionally permissible. Methodology. The study utilized a Delphi technique, a form of descriptive research that is used to forecast future events. A panel of twelve educational experts and fifteen legal experts answered three rounds of questions. In round one, panelists offered three drug-testing policies they believed were likely to be implemented in California public high schools over the next five years. The results were summarized into nineteen policy alternatives. In round two, panelists rated the policy alternatives according to likelihood of implementation. In round three, panelists had the opportunity to change their original responses. Findings. The study found it likely that no change in current drug-testing policies would be implemented by California public high schools over the next five years. The study also found it unlikely that an Earls-type drug-testing policy, one that randomly drug-tested students participating in any extracurricular activity, would be implemented, and even less likely that a policy of random suspicionless drug testing of students school wide would be implemented. Conclusions and recommendations. It is not clear whether an Earls-type drug-testing policy would survive a challenge in California based on independent state grounds. However, the main barrier to implementation of random drug-testing programs in California public high schools is not their legality, but rather their cost-effectiveness. Random drug-testing programs are costly and California is in the midst of a budget crisis. Such policies have not yet been shown to be effective in curbing adolescent drug abuse. Many administrators, teachers, and parents do not support random drug-testing programs making implementation a politically risky proposition. School districts will need to find alternative ways of dealing with adolescent drug abuse.