Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of this study was to describe projected changes in the role of local K–12 teacher unions in California between 1998 and 2008 and to determine the potential impacts these changes will have on collective bargaining and educational policy making. The study was limited to unions for K–12 teachers and to selected participants in California. Methodology. A Delphi Study was conducted using a panel of nineteen experts. Three iterative rounds were used to gather data from the expert panel: of the panelists, 85% responded to Round One; 95% to Round Two; and 100% to Round Three. Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogrov-Smirnov tests were used to analyze the data. Findings. The panel of experts predicted that suspension/repeal of collective bargaining statutes, economic downturn, increased use of interest-based bargaining practices, an increase in conservative legislators, narrowing the scope of collective bargaining, competition for limited financial resources, implementation of a merit pay system, and restructuring large, urban districts may affect collective bargaining practices. Of these, only increased competition for financial resources was predicted to have a moderate possibility of occurrence. The panel of experts predicted that the impact of demographic changes on student achievement, passage of a voucher initiative, the role of politics in curriculum standards, restructuring large, urban districts, charter school expansion, and public concern for the safety of students/employees may affect educational policymaking. Trends/events related to safety, demographic changes, charter school expansion and the role of politics in curriculum standards were predicted to have a moderate to high possibility of occurrence. Conclusions. Political, economic, and demographic trends will impact teacher unions, though only moderately. Collective bargaining practices will not be widely replaced by alternative bargaining strategies. Teacher unions will continue to influence policymaking. This role will be tempered by the influence of politics, public concern for safety and demographic considerations. Implications. The educational community must increase political savvy to influence legislation-driven reform. Coalition building will be increasingly important. Further research regarding the role of teacher unions will need to be conducted.